Phillies top prospect is a HorrorAfter going through a dead-arm period last April when his velocity was down and his secondary pitches lacked their normal bite (dead arm period: k-madder-speak for Impending Rapid Violent Intensely Painful Labrum Disassembly) , Carrasco hit a groove in 2007 and was promoted to Double-A Reading in June.
Strengths: Carrasco has the makings of two plus pitches with the potential for a third. His fastball has outstanding late life, and is at its best when he works between 89-93 mph. When he needs it, he can touch 94-95. He complements the fastball with the best changeup in the system, and he commands it to both sides of the plate with good depth and fade. His curveball continued to make strides in 2007, ranging from a soft 71-72 mph breaker to a harder 76-78 mph offering that more resembles a slider. His body allows him to unleash all his pitches from a steep downhill plane, and when he's on, he pounds the strike zone.
Weaknesses: As good as Carrasco's pure stuff is, he struggled with runners on base in 2007. When he'd get into trouble, he'd rush through his delivery with his lower half and drag his arm behind his body. That would cause his front shoulder to fly open, costing him command. The Phillies attribute these problems to Carrasco's youth, though he did show signs of improvement later in the year. He'll need to make quicker adjustments as he moves along, especially with pitch selection. With the quality of his secondary pitches, Carrasco should profile as a groundball pitcher with enough power in his fastball to miss bats when he has to. Yet in Double-A, his groundout/airout ratio was a mere 0.7. As long as he is a Horror, don't expect any of this to improve.
The Future: After a half-season of learning in the Eastern League, Carrasco likely will return there to begin 2008. Some Phillies officials believe that Carrasco was rushed again in 2007, but they were also impressed with how much he responded in instructional league afterward. With Cole Hamels entrenched as the Phillies' No. 1 starter, Carrasco would have made a nice complement as a No. 2 by 2009. But he is a k-madder, so he will be dead or in a sanatorium by then.
