there is another non-disaster going forward directly behind this one

December 14, 2008: Zell expects housing recovery by spring

(Reuters) — A revival in the U.S. real estate market, key to a recovery in the world economy, should begin by next spring, property mogul Sam Zell told an Israeli business conference on Sunday.

"I believe that in a country that continues to grow and where the population continues to grow, we will see the first signs of equilibrium in the housing market in the spring of 2009 and I will expect by spring 2010 the housing market in the U.S. will look a lot better," Zell said.

Yay! Finally, some good news, and it's coming from someone who knows a thing or two about this stuff...

December 12, 2007: Zell says subprime meltdown is 'manageable'

(Reuters) — Billionaire investor Sam Zell on Wednesday compared the current credit-fueled crisis in U.S. real estate to the savings-and-loan meltdown of the late 1980s but said it was a "manageable" problem that would not drag the wider economy into a recession next year.

Speaking at an event in Chicago hosted by the Executives' Club of Chicago, Zell, who made his fortune in real estate, also predicted the U.S. property market would begin to recover modestly in 2009.

"I don't see any robust change," he said. "I also see no disaster going forward. . ."

"Commercial real-estate has always been (about) supply and demand," he said. "If you own the assets, those assets are going to benefit from the fact that there's little new supply and existing supply will be limited."

Zell said the key to the housing market's health going forward would be the strength of the U.S. job market. He expressed confidence that as long as unemployment stays below 5.5 percent, it was "very, very unlikely" that the subprime contagion would spread.

San Diego...Storm...Rain...Whaaaaaa?...End Times??

Storm headed this way is no turkey
If the storm bearing down on the county lives up to its billing, it could bring some of the heaviest local rain in more than 3½ years. Rain should begin this evening but heaviest showers are expected after midnight.
~

Nate Silver blew it (and NBC calls it)

We always had a good feeling about Indiana when we saw it in our travels. This was a state where Obama had the ground game all to himself. With us predicting a slight win for McCain in the state, but no ground game taken into effect, and with a late minute canvassing push from FiveThirtyEight in Gary, Indiana looks like it'll go Obama.

UPDATE:

so much for that theory

From EU Observer, August 5

Some analysts believe the situation is beginning to thaw after some 15 years of tense ceasefire, as separatist authorities weigh up the option of semi-autonomous rule in a prosperous Georgia against continued isolation and increasing Russian domination.

nice try @ss#ole

Forecast from National Weather Service As of 11:39 am CDT on August 6, 2008
This Afternoon... Partly sunny.
Current conditions: Mostly cloudy.

paying the price for Wright and Pfleger

"Most of the rain we're seeing [early Friday morning] will stay off to the north, from Rockford through portions of Wisconsin," said Tim Halbach, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Romeoville. "The main show is going to be later this afternoon."

That's when warm southerly winds were expected to whip up thunderstorms that could bring drenching rains, hail and possibly tornadoes, Halbach said. "Pretty much everything can be expected," he said.

So easy even a caveman could do it...

"Well, there's big money in that, in the expansion of cable TV, the opportunities to branch off into other areas of media are certainly there. When you consider what meteorology has done to a few guys in our society--like David Letterman--it was probably an opportunity I didn't take advantage of."--Tigers coach Andy Van Slyke, on passing up the chance to be a television weatherman.

s#i+ shaking up caving in and falling aprt

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)

California has more than a 99% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next 30 years, according scientists using a new model to determine the probability of big quakes.

The likelihood of a major quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%-and such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the state.

I Write The Songs

HACKING MASS 2008
Deadwood Drunks IV: The Awfulness
Position Player 2007 ESPN
Change Player Catcher Paul Loduca 53
Change Player First Base Jose Vidro 16
Change Player Second Base Kazuo Matsui 24
Change Player Third Base Jose Castillo 45
Change Player Shortstop Tony Pena 86
Change Player Left Field Juan Pierre 84
Change Player Center Field Michael Bourn 10
Change Player Right Field Jose Guillen -8
Change Player Pitcher 1 Daniel Cabrera 72
Change Player Pitcher 2 Matt Morris 26
Total 408


Predictatron 2008

YOUR BALLOT:
Note: '<--' denotes division winner, '<~' denotes wild card winner, '***' denotes mortal lock pick 

American League East
Baltimore Orioles 72 - 90
Boston Red Sox 95 - 67<-- *** New York Yankees 91 - 71<~ Tampa Bay Rays 83 - 79 Toronto Blue Jays 79 - 83 American League Central
Chicago White Sox 77 - 85
Cleveland Indians 90 - 72<-- Detroit Tigers 85 - 77 Kansas City Royals 75 - 87 Minnesota Twins 73 - 89 American League West
Anaheim Angels 77 - 85
Oakland Athletics 79 - 83
Seattle Mariners 85 - 77<-- Texas Rangers 74 - 88 National League East
Atlanta Braves 86 - 76
Florida Marlins 69 - 93
New York Mets 89 - 73<~ Philadelphia Phillies 93 - 69<-- Washington Nationals 73 - 89 National League Central
Chicago Cubs 91 - 71<-- Cincinnati Reds 81 - 81 Houston Astros 70 - 92 Milwaukee Brewers 87 - 75 Pittsburgh Pirates 75 - 87 St. Louis Cardinals 76 - 86 National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks 89 - 73<-- Colorado Rockies 83 - 79 Los Angeles Dodgers 85 - 77 San Diego Padres 86 - 76 San Francisco Giants 62 - 100*** YOUR PLAYOFFS: American League Division Series: New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians in 5 games Boston Red Sox over Seattle Mariners in 4 games National League Division Series: Chicago Cubs over New York Mets in 5 games Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks in 5 games American League Championship Series: Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees in 6 games National League Championship Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago Cubs in 6 games World Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox in 7 games AL MVP: Grady Sizemore AL CY: Felix Hernandez AL ROY: Philip Hughes AL MAN: Joe Maddon NL MVP: Chase Utley NL CY: Johan Santana NL ROY: Johnny Cueto NL MAN: Cholly Manuel

Bill Moyers brings it

Five years, thousands of casualties, and hundreds of billion dollars later, most of the media co-conspirators caught in flagrante delicto are still prominent, still celebrated, and still holding forth with no more contrition than a weathercaster who made a wrong prediction as to the next day's temperature.

Behold the hectoring.

Smiff infiltrates UN

On World Meteorological Day, UN issues call for improved climate observations

Dick: future weatherman?

On Monday, Vice-President Dick Cheney came to Baghdad and talked about "the phenomenal improvement in security". That day more than 60 Iraqis were killed in bomb attacks.

News item: "America after the invasion of Iraq is no longer the superpower it was before."

Not only is he a HYOOOGE @$$#0LE...

...but he's an enormous idiot as well:

Bobby Knight picked Pittsburgh to win the NCAA basketball tournament. They lost tonight IN THE SECOND ROUND to a mediocre team from the mediocre Big Ten conference.  Hey Knight, you're some "expert"...have you considered weather forecasting?

save time & money: just throw darts

You remember dat "sunny forecast" from da udder day? Not only have we been fogged in for the last two days, but now it's raining. Dat's right, RAINING! (is winter ever going to end? damn dat phokking groundhog!).

The only thing worse than these snake-oil salesmen are economists. Did you see their "forecast" for consumer spending in January? Down 0.3%. What actually happened? Up o.3%. Next month, based on January, they will predict anudder uptick. Which means, the economy will back-slide again.

our long civic nightmare resumes (cont'd)

News item: Cubs pitchers and catchers report today
News item: Dempster predicts Series title for Cubs

these things happen

Snow advisory canceled

The National Weather Service about 5 a.m. canceled a snow advisory that was to extend through 4 p.m. after less than an inch of snow fell overnight at O'Hare International Airport Monday night and a storm did not develop as predicted over the area...

here's a shocker (prepare to be shocked) this is shocking (i'm totally shocked) are you sitting down?

It's not snowing. It wasn't snowing an hour ago. It wasn't snowing three hours ago.

credit where it's due

sKILLy nailed it.

Are you sitting down? Prepare to be shocked...

From the Paul Wolfowitz and Bill Kristol School of Forecasting:

SAN DIEGO – Despite scattered reports of mudslides and minor flooding, the storm rolling through the region Sunday has so far failed to live up to its billing, county officials said. In terms of rainfall and intensity, “the storm turned out to be a lot less than expected,” said Stephen Rea, emergency services coordinator with the county's office of emergency services.

The brunt of the wet weather, though, is expected to come later Sunday and Monday. “We're just beginning,” said Noel Isla, a National Weather Service forecaster.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, go phokk yourself.

Winter is a cruel mistress.

Guess what Smiff had to walk home in tonight? No, not flying monkeys but POURING RAIN. Well, i did hear that rain was in "the forecast," but yesterday when they predicted SLEET and it was sunny all day. So i left the umbrella at home. Not only were my feet wet, but every inch of me was soaked through to the bone! Since they got one right for the first time in months (on July 8th they said it would be sunny), the local weather mafia, led by the brain-dead John Coleman, were seen partying into the night, bar-hopping through the Gaslamp. Well, party on, frauds! You'll got yours (look for my forthcoming class action suit), much like the Bush Administration. After BushCo., there is no group more incompetant or infested with rampant corruption than weather "forecasters."