Let's see:
1) Smiff out of focus and looking haggard. Wuz dere drinking involved? Chances are: Yes.
2) Not sounding good for King Felix, but whatdaphokk does Carroll know. Seems like Sarge has already established dat fact, Jack. Still..."a quickening cascade of injuries" sounds like da Cherries new name after the All-Star break. Though we lost on Jon Papelbon, we were hoping both Philip Hughes and Adam "Chico" Lind would be up by now. So it's all coming together. Lind is already mashing the ball, so he should at least be on the good side of the platoon once the less-than-average Reed Johnson returns. Better yet, just stay injured.
3) Sarge's Cubs scenario sounds rosy, but you must factor in the inevitable declines of Marquis and Lilly (and for the latter, staying healthy). And see Swindler ripping Z in the comments... Also, and let's be perfectly clear about this, this is the Cubs we're talking about.
4) Yeah, Izzy is worse than Neifi: 45 points of OPS worse over their careers (though in less friendly hitting environments). Note the lemming comment sponsoring the Izturis page @ Baseball Reference.
Smiff's Fun Fact of the day:
Career Homeruns
Cesar Izturis: 12
Carlos Zambrano: 11
5) Smiff back on a diet. "Dinner" last night: tofu surprise, lemon asparagus, and quinoa cake!! (courtesy of Whole Paycheck)
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2 comments:
Zambrano red flags still flying... We've been concerned about Carlos Zambrano (RHP, CHC) for a while. The Forecaster has mentioned his workload more than once, and Ron Shandler's preseason draft column warned of "a coming collapse." But so soon? Zambrano has a 5.75 ERA through six starts. His last start wasn't bad - 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB (but just 2 K's.) Time to buy? Or buyer beware?
High-workload pitchers tend to get labeled as "studs", but problems eventually arise. Zambrano was a dominant pitcher in 2004, but since then, we've seen a few chinks in the armor:
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd G L F DOM/DIS
========================================================
2004 209 2.75 3.26 3.5 8.1 2.3 51 18 31 74 / 6
2005 223 3.27 3.12 3.5 8.1 2.3 50 20 30 64 / 14
2006 214 3.41 3.57 4.8 8.8 1.8 47 17 36 70 / 12
2007 34 5.77 4.02 5.0 6.6 1.3 51 17 32 50 / 33
Pros and cons:
* Control has been poor for over a year. And, it's not like he had a bad stretch last year: Ctl was 4.9 in the first half, 4.7 in the second.
* xERA jumped last year, as Zambrano put more runners on base. He's still doing it.
* Dom rate down two points? It's early, but that's always something to keep an eye on.
* Rising FB rate? Too soon to make that call based on last year, and so far he's back to normal. Another item for the watch list.
Zambrano's ERA is certainly going to turn around, but you shouldn't ignore the other warning signs. A continued sub-par Dom combined with poor control is a dangerous mix. There is the possibility of a 4+ ERA this year - something that was unthinkable three years ago. He's not a no-brainer buy-low candidate; it really depends on your goals and league context.
Of course his ERA at the end of April last year was over 5.50 too and his career April ERA is about 2 runs higher than it is in the other 5 months combined. Swindler should know that, but since he's a step below even Carroll it doesn't fit his agenda so he won't use it.
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