Wednesday, December 17, 2008

there is another non-disaster going forward directly behind this one

December 14, 2008: Zell expects housing recovery by spring

(Reuters) — A revival in the U.S. real estate market, key to a recovery in the world economy, should begin by next spring, property mogul Sam Zell told an Israeli business conference on Sunday.

"I believe that in a country that continues to grow and where the population continues to grow, we will see the first signs of equilibrium in the housing market in the spring of 2009 and I will expect by spring 2010 the housing market in the U.S. will look a lot better," Zell said.


Yay! Finally, some good news, and it's coming from someone who knows a thing or two about this stuff...

December 12, 2007: Zell says subprime meltdown is 'manageable'

(Reuters) — Billionaire investor Sam Zell on Wednesday compared the current credit-fueled crisis in U.S. real estate to the savings-and-loan meltdown of the late 1980s but said it was a "manageable" problem that would not drag the wider economy into a recession next year.

Speaking at an event in Chicago hosted by the Executives' Club of Chicago, Zell, who made his fortune in real estate, also predicted the U.S. property market would begin to recover modestly in 2009.

"I don't see any robust change," he said. "I also see no disaster going forward. . ."

"Commercial real-estate has always been (about) supply and demand," he said. "If you own the assets, those assets are going to benefit from the fact that there's little new supply and existing supply will be limited."

Zell said the key to the housing market's health going forward would be the strength of the U.S. job market. He expressed confidence that as long as unemployment stays below 5.5 percent, it was "very, very unlikely" that the subprime contagion would spread.

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