Ted (San Francisco): What are the odds of a magical synergy striking Chicago and bringing us an Obama victory shortly following a White Sox World Series win?
Nate Silver: We have the White Sox at about 73% to make the playoffs, and they'll win the playoffs about 1 out of every 8 times that they get there, so that works out to a 9% chance of winning the World Series. And Obama is maybe 55% to win the election. So we're looking at about a 5% chance for the parlay, or roughly 20:1 against. The probability of having an El-Train Series (Cubs-Sox) and Obama winning the White House is about 3%, or 32:1 against.
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1 comment:
Shouldn't it be Chicago $#!+3 Sox? Just a suggestion on how to insult us properly...
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